Beyond Chance and Credence


Myrvold, W. (2021). Beyond Chance and Credence. Perimeter Institute. https://pirsa.org/21100024


Myrvold, Wayne. Beyond Chance and Credence. Perimeter Institute, Oct. 22, 2021, https://pirsa.org/21100024


          @misc{ pirsa_PIRSA:21100024,
            doi = {10.48660/21100024},
            url = {https://pirsa.org/21100024},
            author = {Myrvold, Wayne},
            keywords = {Quantum Foundations},
            language = {en},
            title = {Beyond Chance and Credence},
            publisher = {Perimeter Institute},
            year = {2021},
            month = {oct},
            note = {PIRSA:21100024 see, \url{https://pirsa.org}}

Wayne Myrvold Western University


This talk is about how to think about probabilistic reasoning and its use in physics.  It has become commonplace, in the literature on the foundations of probability, to note that the word “probability” has been used in at least two distinct senses: an objective, physical sense (often called “objective chance”), thought to be characteristic of physical situations, independent of considerations of knowledge and ignorance, and an epistemic sense, having to do with gradations of belief of agents with limited information about the world.  I will argue that in order to do justice to the use of probabilistic concepts in physics, we should go beyond this familiar dichotomy, and make use of a third concept, which I call “epistemic chance,” which combines epistemic and physical considerations.